In a period of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical upheaval, the global payments ecosystem is once again demonstrating resilience. In the previous McKinsey Global Payments Report, we described an annual decline in revenues for 2020, the first since 2009.¹ That decline, coming during the early stages of the pandemic, was less pronounced than anticipated.
At that time, we foresaw a nominal but geographically uneven rebound on the near-term horizon. As we describe in the lead chapter of this year’s report, actual results proved more robust: revenue growth in 2021 was 11 percent, the highest since 2017, leading to a record $2.1 trillion globally, and growth was healthy across all regions. Our five-year revenue outlook now exceeds pre-pandemic expectations, topping $3 trillion by 2026.
As they often do, the drivers of growth are shifting, distributing gains in new ways and potentially to new and nontraditional participants. Inflation and interest rates are both reaching levels not seen for decades in many countries, altering consumer and business behavior and, consequently, payment dynamics. At the same time, capital market assessments of many fintech firms are undergoing recalibration—in some cases prompting companies to shift focus from pure growth to a profitability model.
